A continuous stream of investigations with no newsworthy findings.
Effort thoroughly investigated the backgrounds and trading behavior of the most profitable 30 accounts and their related crypto addresses in the LA Election Polymarket. We found no evidence of insider trading or other advance knowledge of LA Election results. The majority of the most successful accounts were known Polymarket traders successful across numerous markets, some of whom documented their reasoning for their trades.
Effort was unable to identify any financial or staffing information for Median Strategies, a polling firm which claims to have published several fake polls.
Effort analyzed all 2026 SEC EDGAR filings in search of anomalous filings indicative of tariff evasion. We found no wrongdoing.
We thoroughly searched for government promotion or coordination with the Ceuta attacks, including past collaboration with governments or government-funded NGOs by the group admins. We did not identify any links.
We investigated corruption, bribery, and criminal conflict of interest in FDA approvals since 2017. We found no previously unreported wrongdoing.
We identified one case in 2016 approved under suspicious circumstances with trials still pending, but it does not currently pass our bar for publication.
We looked into evidence of insider trading or collusion in the computer memory industry among publicly traded companies. We found no evidence of wrongdoing.
We launched an investigation into religious conversions during office of US Representatives and Senators. We found no identifiable patterns, connected events, or social circles around religious conversion.
We found few instances of lobbying or other manipulation of the US food guide. There were only four plausible instances with no systemic pattern:
The American Bakers Association in 2015-2016.
The Sugar Association in 1989-1990, 1999-2000, and 2020.
We scanned all Appeals Court opinions since 2022, the year when ChatGPT was released. We found zero opinions written using AI. A small number of opinions quoted from disclosed AI output.
We found no significant growth in ADA spending or lawsuit awards in the recent years.
We also found no significant expansion of LEAP/childhood disability spending.
We searched all YC companies since 2020 for circular revenue contracts/disclosures and found none. So as far as we know, the meme that YC companies are just booking each other as revenue is false.
We used several text and activity metrics to identify the most similar editor accounts for each of the top 100 editors on wikipedia. We found no evidence of duplicate accounts.